观察简介
据昨天（2020年11月10日）发布的消息，Dodge 数据 &分析 2021建筑展望预测明年美国新开工建筑总量将增加4%，达到7710亿美元
受新冠肺炎疫情影响，今年前六个月美国新开工建筑项目锐减，而复苏之路“受潜在问题影响，将漫长而艰难”，Dodge总经济师Richard Branch 在新闻发布会上说，到目前为止，今年新开工建筑项目据估计减少了14%，总量仅为7380亿美元。
Dodge还预测，非住宅类建筑的市场价值将升高3%，非楼宇类建筑的市场价值将升高7%。
深度观察：
“秋冬季节新一轮新冠肺炎疫情及延迟的财政刺激所带来的不确定性将延缓2021年的经济复苏”Branch 在新闻发布会上说“若2021年初能有进一步的财政刺激，并且新冠疫苗能获得批准并广泛使用，那明年商业和消费者信心都将有所提升，但建筑市场由于受疫情影响太严重，还需要相当长的时间才能完全复苏。”
Dodge关于2021年建筑业的预测还包括：
多户型住宅建筑数量将减少1%，新开工数目减少2%至484000。
新开工商业建筑的市场价值将升高5%，随着电商公司继续加强物流等基础设施建设，仓库和数据中心类建筑项目将有所增加。
零售业和酒店业务将持续不景气。
州政府和各地方政府财政赤字增加，将对公共建筑产生影响，政府建筑项目新开工数目将增加1%。教育类建筑项目将继续减少，而健康医疗类项目将增加。
受联邦政府对州政府及地方政府财政支持力度的不确定性的影响，2021年新开工的公共设施项目将略有增加，但增加幅度不大。
随着几个大型的液化天然气出口设施的开工和风力发电厂项目数量的增加，电力设施和燃气设施项目将增加35%。
制造业厂房类项目市场价值将继续走势平平。
Dodge: U.S. construction starts will increase 4% next year
Dive Brief:
Released yesterday, the Dodge Data & Analytics 2021 Construction Outlook predicts that total U.S. construction starts will increase by 4% next year, to $771 billion.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a deep drop in construction starts in the first six months of 2020, and the road to recovery “will be long and fraught with potential potholes” Richard Branch, Dodge chief economist, said in a press release. In 2020 so far, construction starts have slipped an estimated 14% to $738 billion.
Dodge also predicted the dollar value of nonresidential buildings will be up 3%, while nonbuilding construction will improve by 7%.
Dive Insight:
“Uncertainty surrounding the next wave of COVID-19 infections in the fall and winter and delayed fiscal stimulus will lead to a slow and jagged recovery in 2021,” Branch said in the release. “Business and consumer confidence will improve over the year as further stimulus comes in early 2021 and a vaccine is approved and becomes more widely distributed, but construction markets have been deeply scarred and will take considerable time to fully recover.”
Other predictions from Dodge for construction in 2021 include:
Multifamily construction will drop 1% while the number of units started will fall 2% to 484,000.
The dollar value of commercial building starts will increase 5%. Warehouse and data center construction will be strong as e-commerce companies continue to build out their logistics infrastructure.
Retail and hotel activity will languish.
In 2021, institutional construction starts will increase by 1% as growing state and local budget deficits impact public building construction. Education construction is expected to see further declines, while healthcare starts are predicted to rise.
Public works construction starts will see little improvement as 2021 begins due to continued uncertainty surrounding additional federal aid for state and local areas.
Electric utilities/gas plants will gain 35%, led by expected groundbreakings for several large LNG export facilities and an increasing number of wind farms.
The dollar value of manufacturing plant construction will remain flat.
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